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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team DogChamploss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
78%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 17 games
65%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 16 games
81%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 14 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
Cr1t- · 14 games
57%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fly · 13 games
62%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 12 games
75%

Team DogChamp

Invoker
Invokersignature
RCY · 15 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Bloody Nine · 12 games
83%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 11 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
RCY · 10 games
80%
Techies
Techiessignature
yarintheslayer · 9 games
67%
Tinker
Tinkersignature
RCY · 9 games
78%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Bloody Nine · 9 games
78%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 8 games
88%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
779 picks · 511 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
552 picks · 397 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
540 picks · 444 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
533 picks · 573 bans
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
420 picks · 662 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
400 picks · 287 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
386 picks · 724 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 793 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 83%
Hero pool strength51% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:13
Shopify Rebellion 70%Team DogChamp 30%
The model gave 70% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 31:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSabeRLight-
51% · 277 games54% · 266 games
LinaSunlight
Lina
Abaddon
AbaddonArteezy
61% · 76 games43% · 324 games
Ember SpiritRCY
Ember Spirit
Death Prophet
Death ProphetAbed
53% · 343 games46% · 672 games
TinyFrancisLee
Tiny
Tusk
TuskCr1t-
51% · 479 games45% · 49 games
GyrocopterBloody Nine
Gyrocopter
Disruptor
DisruptorFly
48% · 136 games
Game 2prediction correct37:15
Shopify Rebellion 69%Team DogChamp 31%
The model gave 69% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 33:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaArteezy
47% · 48 games53% · 117 games
RazorSunlight
Razor
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAbed
63% · 80 games50% · 4 games
TinkerRCY
Tinker
Pangolier
PangolierSabeRLight-
54% · 142 games43% · 54 games
Dark WillowFrancisLee
Dark Willow
Io
IoCr1t-
53% · 43 games44% · 207 games
ClockwerkBloody Nine
Clockwerk
Disruptor
DisruptorFly
47% · 69 games
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 85%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2