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BETBOOM Streamers Battle 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
YBN Teamwin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Stray Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

YBN Team

Snapfire
Snapfire
ybicanoooobov · 4 games
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Shishak · 3 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
kolya_kaBAN68 · 3 games
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Shishak · 3 games
33%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
dabex · 3 games
0%
Sand King
Sand King
ybicanoooobov · 3 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
ybicanoooobov · 2 games
50%
Pudge
Pudge
kolya_kaBAN68 · 2 games
0%

Stray Team

Necrophos
Necrophossignature
Stray · 8 games
63%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
Goodoq · 6 games
33%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Vovapain · 6 games
67%
Sniper
Sniper
Stray · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Goodoq · 4 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Vovapain · 4 games
75%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
balod9l · 4 games
75%
Pudge
Pudge
DkFogas · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
490 picks · 292 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
362 picks · 159 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
357 picks · 155 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
326 picks · 476 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
301 picks · 301 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
292 picks · 467 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
287 picks · 266 bans
59%
Undying
Undying
268 picks · 370 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)17% vs 61%
Hero pool strength63% Stray Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Stray Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:27
YBN Team 51%Stray Team 49%
The model gave 51% on YBN Team — the game was taken by Stray Team in 51:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svennesfeer
58% · 59 games60% · 83 games
Lunazvёzd
Luna
Necrophos
Necrophostakizawa
56% · 62 games43% · 176 games
UnderlordDkFogas
Underlord
Pangolier
Pangolierybicanoooobov
49% · 272 games46% · 21 game
SniperStray
Sniper
Silencer
Silencerbalod9l
48% · 92 games46% · 228 games
RubickVovapain
Rubick
Batrider
BatriderEARTHQ
50% · 198 games47% · 175 games
WarlockАнатолий Злотников
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct33:9
YBN Team 51%Stray Team 49%
The model gave 51% on YBN Team — the game was taken by YBN Team in 30:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark Seertakizawa
44% · 41 game43% · 70 games
Juggernautzvёzd
Juggernaut
Windranger
Windrangernesfeer
53% · 124 games50% · 106 games
BristlebackStray
Bristleback
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightybicanoooobov
49% · 173 games54% · 108 games
Primal BeastDkFogas
Primal Beast
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeEARTHQ
56% · 36 games50% · 54 games
Witch DoctorVovapain
Witch Doctor
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionbalod9l
54% · 28 games47% · 64 games
Spirit BreakerАнатолий Злотников
Spirit Breaker
Game 3prediction correct35:10
YBN Team 52%Stray Team 48%
The model gave 52% on YBN Team — the game was taken by YBN Team in 33:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistnesfeer
49% · 44 games56% · 30 games
Phantom Assassinzvёzd
Phantom Assassin
Slardar
Slardartakizawa
49% · 181 game45% · 108 games
EnigmaDkFogas
Enigma
Death Prophet
Death Prophetybicanoooobov
43% · 18 games43% · 176 games
ViperStray
Viper
Hoodwink
HoodwinkEARTHQ
56% · 373 games49% · 374 games
DisruptorАнатолий Злотников
Disruptor
Tusk
Tuskbalod9l
52% · 277 games53% · 205 games
LionVovapain
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteStray Team · 51%
Series resultYBN Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3