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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PSG Questloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Snapfire
Snapfire
Misha · 11 games
45%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Yuragi · 10 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Taiga · 10 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 9 games
56%
Oracle
Oracle
Taiga · 9 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 8 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 8 games
38%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
DM · 7 games
29%

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 24 games
79%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 16 games
69%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Wuiter · 14 games
79%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 13 games
69%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Kaori · 13 games
77%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
No!ob · 12 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
No!ob · 12 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
777 picks · 511 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
551 picks · 396 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
540 picks · 444 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
533 picks · 573 bans
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
420 picks · 661 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
400 picks · 287 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
386 picks · 722 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
363 picks · 792 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 75%
Hero pool strength62% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:48
OG 54%PSG Quest 46%
The model gave 54% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 1:18:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageYuragi
49% · 33 games54% · 120 games
MorphlingTA2000
Morphling
Pangolier
Pangolierbzm
49% · 319 games46% · 74 games
ZeusNo!ob
Zeus
Venomancer
VenomancerDM
53% · 40 games58% · 84 games
BroodmotherWuiter
Broodmother
Lich
LichChuvash
40% · 70 games51% · 211 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Monkey King
Monkey KingTaiga
51% · 176 games52% · 149 games
ClockwerkKaori
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct34:32
OG 53%PSG Quest 47%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 44:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistYuragi
52% · 79 games51% · 122 games
Faceless VoidTA2000
Faceless Void
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
46% · 428 games51% · 488 games
TinyNo!ob
Tiny
Undying
UndyingDM
53% · 334 games51% · 111 games
Primal BeastWuiter
Primal Beast
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightChuvash
51% · 227 games46% · 314 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Dark Willow
Dark WillowTaiga
44% · 74 games57% · 107 games
DisruptorKaori
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 64%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2