Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Plasmawin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
5 myyraaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Plasma
Bristleback
legacy · 1 game
Sven
legacy · 1 game
5 myyraa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
775 picks · 509 bans
Tiny
550 picks · 394 bans
Tusk
542 picks · 441 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 573 bans
Nature's Prophet
419 picks · 657 bans
Snapfire
398 picks · 287 bans
Death Prophet
386 picks · 721 bans
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 790 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% Plasma
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Plasma
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:24
Plasma 65%5 myyraa 35%
The model gave 65% on Plasma — the game was taken by Plasma in 39:46.
Game 2prediction correct64:53
Plasma 65%5 myyraa 35%
The model gave 65% on Plasma — the game was taken by Plasma in 1:02:29.
Model check result
Model favoritePlasma · 65%
Series resultPlasma 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2