Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Monaspaloss 0:2series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Entitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
775 picks · 509 bans
Tiny
550 picks · 394 bans
Tusk
542 picks · 441 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 573 bans
Nature's Prophet
419 picks · 657 bans
Snapfire
398 picks · 287 bans
Death Prophet
386 picks · 721 bans
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 790 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Monaspa
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:17
Monaspa 25%Entity 75%
The model gave 75% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 38:00.
Game 2prediction correct38:26
Monaspa 25%Entity 75%
The model gave 75% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 45:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 75%
Series resultEntity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2