Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
BAZA Esportswin 2:1series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SIBE Teamloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BAZA Esports
No games played over 6 months.
SIBE Team
Clockwerk
Arti_Shock · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
Arti_Shock · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
775 picks · 506 bans
Tiny
550 picks · 392 bans
Tusk
542 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 576 bans
Nature's Prophet
419 picks · 653 bans
Snapfire
398 picks · 285 bans
Death Prophet
386 picks · 713 bans
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 789 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength57% SIBE Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% SIBE Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:17
BAZA Esports 36%SIBE Team 64%
The model gave 64% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 34:49.
Game 2prediction missed16:31
BAZA Esports 36%SIBE Team 64%
The model gave 64% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by BAZA Esports in 32:15.
Game 3prediction missed21:36
BAZA Esports 36%SIBE Team 64%
The model gave 64% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by BAZA Esports in 30:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteSIBE Team · 64%
Series resultBAZA Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3