Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
MCASTwin 1:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:0
unlucky boysloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MCAST
No games played over 6 months.
unlucky boys
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
776 picks · 505 bans
Tiny
551 picks · 392 bans
Tusk
542 picks · 440 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 580 bans
Nature's Prophet
417 picks · 652 bans
Snapfire
398 picks · 286 bans
Death Prophet
386 picks · 712 bans
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 788 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% MCAST
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% unlucky boys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
MCAST 48%unlucky boys 52%
The model gave 52% on unlucky boys — the game was taken by MCAST.
Model check result
Model favoriteunlucky boys · 52%
Series resultMCAST 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1