Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction孤孤独摇滚loss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Piggy Killerwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
孤独摇滚
No games played over 6 months.
Piggy Killer
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
776 picks · 505 bans
Tiny
552 picks · 390 bans
Tusk
543 picks · 441 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 582 bans
Nature's Prophet
416 picks · 651 bans
Snapfire
399 picks · 286 bans
Death Prophet
387 picks · 711 bans
Ember Spirit
363 picks · 787 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% 孤独摇滚
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Piggy Killer
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:21
孤独摇滚 38%Piggy Killer 62%
The model gave 62% on Piggy Killer — the game was taken by Piggy Killer in 21:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal Beaststrawberry
Nature's Prophetflyfly
35% · 16 games
Queen of PainXm
45% · 38 games
BeastmasterSrf
56% · 46 games
MiranaFrisk
58% · 68 games
ClockwerkVictoria
Game 2prediction correct
孤独摇滚 27%Piggy Killer 73%
The model gave 73% on Piggy Killer — the game was taken by Piggy Killer.
Model check result
Model favoritePiggy Killer · 73%
Series resultPiggy Killer 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2