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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famloss 1:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Army Geniuseswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Geek Fam

Rubick
Rubick
NARMAN · 19 games
58%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
ace12 · 14 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
NARMAN · 13 games
46%
Tusk
Tusksignature
NARMAN · 13 games
62%
Marci
Marcisignature
NARMAN · 12 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Roddgeee · 10 games
30%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Skem · 10 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Force · 8 games
63%

Army Geniuses

Tiny
Tinysignature
Jhocam · 21 game
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Varizh · 13 games
85%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
inYourdreaM · 12 games
33%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
woMy · 11 games
45%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Jhocam · 10 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Yowe · 9 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Varizh · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yowe · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
773 picks · 505 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
548 picks · 389 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
543 picks · 441 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
534 picks · 582 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
413 picks · 647 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
399 picks · 284 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
385 picks · 706 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
362 picks · 785 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 77%
Hero pool strength54% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total51% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:16
Geek Fam 50%Army Geniuses 50%
The model gave 50% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 38:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSkem
48% · 157 games37% · 39 games
Alchemistdb-
Alchemist
Doom
DoomForce
58% · 121 game50% · 129 games
Monkey KinginYourdreaM
Monkey King
Techies
TechiesNARMAN
49% · 38 games46% · 72 games
KunkkaYowe
Kunkka
Undying
UndyingJaunuel
60% · 131 game43% · 139 games
HoodwinkJhocam
Hoodwink
50% · 68 games
ZeusVarizh
Zeus
Game 2prediction correct15:31
Geek Fam 49%Army Geniuses 51%
The model gave 51% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 39:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSkem
54% · 135 games58% · 162 games
Nature's ProphetinYourdreaM
Nature's Prophet
Doom
DoomForce
36% · 152 games56% · 148 games
Templar AssassinYowe
Templar Assassin
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightNARMAN
43% · 141 game52% · 54 games
Magnusdb-
Magnus
Mirana
MiranaJaunuel
52% · 258 games49% · 317 games
RubickJhocam
Rubick
44% · 5 games
Bounty HunterVarizh
Bounty Hunter
Game 3prediction correct11:29
Geek Fam 49%Army Geniuses 51%
The model gave 51% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 34:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaSkem
48% · 124 games39% · 32 games
LifestealerinYourdreaM
Lifestealer
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightForce
51% · 216 games54% · 66 games
Enigmadb-
Enigma
Techies
TechiesNARMAN
55% · 60 games47% · 130 games
Keeper of the LightYowe
Keeper of the Light
Io
IoJaunuel
55% · 137 games51% · 16 games
GyrocopterVarizh
Gyrocopter
48% · 293 games
TinyJhocam
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 51%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3