Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Brightwin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HYPEONEloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Bright
No games played over 6 months.
HYPEONE
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
772 picks · 505 bans
Tiny
547 picks · 386 bans
Tusk
541 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 582 bans
Nature's Prophet
413 picks · 644 bans
Snapfire
396 picks · 284 bans
Death Prophet
384 picks · 703 bans
Ember Spirit
359 picks · 784 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Team Bright
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% Team Bright
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:20
Team Bright 54%HYPEONE 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright in 38:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomIrving
LinaSakata
Tinyphoenix
Death ProphetShining
SnapfireUndyne_
Game 2prediction correct34:15
Team Bright 53%HYPEONE 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright in 36:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spiritphoenix
DoomShining
Legion CommanderIrving
BatriderSakata
GrimstrokeUndyne_
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bright · 61%
Series resultTeam Bright 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2