Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction0021win 2:0
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Mmonopolyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
021
Abaddonoften banned
Ark · 1 game
Snapfire
Steelborco · 1 game
monopoly
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
772 picks · 503 bans
Tiny
547 picks · 386 bans
Tusk
541 picks · 436 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 582 bans
Nature's Prophet
413 picks · 643 bans
Snapfire
395 picks · 282 bans
Death Prophet
384 picks · 703 bans
Ember Spirit
359 picks · 781 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength58% monopoly
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% monopoly
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:27
021 34%monopoly 66%
The model gave 66% on monopoly — the game was taken by 021 in 42:00.
Game 2prediction missed32:10
021 34%monopoly 66%
The model gave 66% on monopoly — the game was taken by 021 in 22:25.
Model check result
Model favoritemonopoly · 66%
Series result021 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2