PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Pibbles Corploss 0:2series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hokoriwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pibbles Corp
Dark Seeroften banned
Ryu · 2 games
Disruptor
Prada · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Alone · 2 games
Spirit Breaker
Mjz · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ryu · 1 game
Clockwerk
Prada · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Alone · 1 game
Largooften banned
Ryu · 1 game
Hokori
Hoodwink
Asao · 10 games
Clockwerk
Gardick · 5 games
Tinyoften banned
Lumière · 5 games
Windranger
Lumière · 5 games
Axeoften banned
Gardick · 4 games
Bristleback
Vitaly · 4 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lumière · 4 games
Phoenix
Genek · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
484 picks · 291 bans
Mirana
348 picks · 148 bans
Dark Willow
343 picks · 157 bans
Ember Spirit
323 picks · 465 bans
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 298 bans
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 457 bans
Winter Wyvern
276 picks · 259 bans
Clockwerk
267 picks · 195 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Hokori
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:53
Pibbles Corp 33%Hokori 67%
The model gave 67% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 1:04:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
NecrophosLumière
Tinypayk
PangolierAlone
Ember SpiritWonderk1d
UndyingRyu
LargoVitaly
Winter WyvernPrada
MiranaGardick
LionMjz
Dark WillowAsao
Game 2prediction correct22:43
Pibbles Corp 31%Hokori 69%
The model gave 69% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 41:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetLumière
InvokerWonderk1d
Void SpiritAlone
Clinkzpayk
LargoRyu
BeastmasterVitaly
HoodwinkPrada
TechiesAsao
ClockwerkMjz
UndyingGardick
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 81%
Series resultHokori 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2