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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesiswin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Nemesis

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Lelis · 21 game
67%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Jabz · 19 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
rubikon155 · 19 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 17 games
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Jhocam · 15 games
53%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Jabz · 13 games
62%
Enchantress
Enchantress
YamSun · 12 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
rubikon155 · 11 games
45%

MOUZ

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 23 games
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
yamich · 19 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangolier
BOOM · 16 games
38%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 16 games
38%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
yamich · 15 games
53%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BOOM · 14 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
aik · 14 games
29%
Puck
Pucksignature
MidOne · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
483 picks · 292 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
346 picks · 144 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
339 picks · 156 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
318 picks · 464 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
294 picks · 298 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 449 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
275 picks · 254 bans
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
268 picks · 195 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 31%
Hero pool strength55% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:29
Team Nemesis 58%MOUZ 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 49:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMo13ei
56% · 137 games55% · 284 games
Nature's Prophet423
Nature's Prophet
Windranger
WindrangerJaCkky
46% · 203 games47% · 114 games
EarthshakerSupream^
Earthshaker
Axe
AxeSabeRLight-
47% · 136 games51% · 303 games
DoomBOOM
Doom
Hoodwink
HoodwinkNARMAN
54% · 501 game45% · 445 games
Rubickmrls
Rubick
Tusk
TuskJhocam
48% · 259 games51% · 90 games
Witch DoctorMoOz
Witch Doctor
Game 2prediction correct41:19
Team Nemesis 57%MOUZ 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 42:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyJaCkky
46% · 580 games45% · 152 games
Nature's Prophet423
Nature's Prophet
Lina
LinaMo13ei
45% · 122 games59% · 361 game
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
Centaur Warrunner
Largo
LargoSabeRLight-
56% · 277 games57% · 438 games
Ember SpiritSupream^
Ember Spirit
Mirana
MiranaNARMAN
51% · 285 games51% · 100 games
DazzleMoOz
Dazzle
Dark Willow
Dark WillowJhocam
41% · 419 games49% · 632 games
Hoodwinkmrls
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 63%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2