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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Alliance.LATAMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 14 games
79%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 14 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 13 games
54%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 12 games
58%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 11 games
73%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Oscar · 11 games
64%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Panda · 11 games
64%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chris Luck · 10 games
50%

Alliance.LATAM

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
768 picks · 502 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
545 picks · 385 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
539 picks · 434 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
534 picks · 582 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
411 picks · 643 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
394 picks · 278 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
383 picks · 702 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
359 picks · 777 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total85% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:17
Evil Geniuses 85%Alliance.LATAM 15%
The model gave 85% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 46:18.
Game 2prediction correct41:22
Evil Geniuses 85%Alliance.LATAM 15%
The model gave 85% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 38:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 85%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2