Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Pacific esportsloss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TKTeam KNGI SAwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pacific esports
No games played over 6 months.
Team KNGI SA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
765 picks · 496 bans
Tiny
544 picks · 382 bans
Tusk
538 picks · 432 bans
Treant Protector
533 picks · 575 bans
Nature's Prophet
411 picks · 637 bans
Snapfire
394 picks · 274 bans
Death Prophet
382 picks · 697 bans
Ember Spirit
358 picks · 773 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Pacific esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Pacific esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:32
Pacific esports 52%Team KNGI SA 48%
The model gave 52% on Pacific esports — the game was taken by Team KNGI SA in 35:10.
Game 2prediction correct18:34
Pacific esports 52%Team KNGI SA 48%
The model gave 52% on Pacific esports — the game was taken by Pacific esports in 37:48.
Game 3prediction missed22:30
Pacific esports 52%Team KNGI SA 48%
The model gave 52% on Pacific esports — the game was taken by Team KNGI SA in 37:06.
Model check result
Model favoritePacific esports · 52%
Series resultTeam KNGI SA 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3