Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
qualifiers enjoyersloss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
KEFTEMEwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
qualifiers enjoyers
No games played over 6 months.
KEFTEME
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
765 picks · 496 bans
Tiny
544 picks · 391 bans
Tusk
538 picks · 433 bans
Treant Protector
533 picks · 576 bans
Nature's Prophet
411 picks · 636 bans
Snapfire
394 picks · 276 bans
Death Prophet
382 picks · 693 bans
Ember Spirit
358 picks · 776 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 71%
Hero pool strength50% qualifiers enjoyers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% KEFTEME
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:43
qualifiers enjoyers 48%KEFTEME 52%
The model gave 52% on KEFTEME — the game was taken by KEFTEME in 48:07.
Game 2prediction correct
qualifiers enjoyers 48%KEFTEME 52%
The model gave 52% on KEFTEME — the game was taken by KEFTEME.
Model check result
Model favoriteKEFTEME · 52%
Series resultKEFTEME 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2