Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Dmokafarm Esportsloss 1:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Carstenszwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dmokafarm Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Carstensz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
765 picks · 496 bans
Tiny
544 picks · 392 bans
Tusk
540 picks · 437 bans
Treant Protector
533 picks · 582 bans
Nature's Prophet
411 picks · 634 bans
Snapfire
394 picks · 276 bans
Death Prophet
384 picks · 685 bans
Ember Spirit
358 picks · 772 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Dmokafarm Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Carstensz
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:31
Dmokafarm Esports 42%Carstensz 58%
The model gave 58% on Carstensz — the game was taken by Dmokafarm Esports in 41:42.
Game 2prediction correct9:31
Dmokafarm Esports 42%Carstensz 58%
The model gave 58% on Carstensz — the game was taken by Carstensz in 31:09.
Game 3prediction correct36:20
Dmokafarm Esports 42%Carstensz 58%
The model gave 58% on Carstensz — the game was taken by Carstensz in 34:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteCarstensz · 58%
Series resultCarstensz 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3