Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionZEZEN Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Dmokafarm Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ZEN Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Dmokafarm Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
767 picks · 496 bans
Tiny
545 picks · 391 bans
Tusk
542 picks · 440 bans
Treant Protector
532 picks · 581 bans
Nature's Prophet
414 picks · 627 bans
Snapfire
394 picks · 276 bans
Death Prophet
382 picks · 677 bans
Ember Spirit
359 picks · 770 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% ZEN Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% ZEN Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:42
ZEN Esports 57%Dmokafarm Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on ZEN Esports — the game was taken by ZEN Esports in 59:40.
Game 2prediction missed44:19
ZEN Esports 57%Dmokafarm Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on ZEN Esports — the game was taken by Dmokafarm Esports in 44:44.
Game 3prediction missed39:18
ZEN Esports 57%Dmokafarm Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on ZEN Esports — the game was taken by Dmokafarm Esports in 1:03:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteZEN Esports · 57%
Series resultDmokafarm Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3