Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionUUltimateDotaloss 1:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TTTeam Toughwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
UltimateDota
No games played over 6 months.
Team Tough
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
767 picks · 496 bans
Tiny
545 picks · 391 bans
Tusk
542 picks · 440 bans
Treant Protector
532 picks · 581 bans
Nature's Prophet
414 picks · 627 bans
Snapfire
394 picks · 276 bans
Death Prophet
382 picks · 677 bans
Ember Spirit
359 picks · 770 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% UltimateDota
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Team Tough
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:13
UltimateDota 45%Team Tough 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Tough — the game was taken by UltimateDota in 28:18.
Game 2prediction correct19:27
UltimateDota 45%Team Tough 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Tough — the game was taken by Team Tough in 36:04.
Game 3prediction correct7:27
UltimateDota 45%Team Tough 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Tough — the game was taken by Team Tough in 26:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tough · 55%
Series resultTeam Tough 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3