Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Carstenszwin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TCTeam Catloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Carstensz
No games played over 6 months.
Team Cat
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
767 picks · 496 bans
Tiny
545 picks · 391 bans
Tusk
542 picks · 440 bans
Treant Protector
532 picks · 581 bans
Nature's Prophet
414 picks · 627 bans
Snapfire
394 picks · 276 bans
Death Prophet
382 picks · 677 bans
Ember Spirit
359 picks · 770 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Carstensz
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Carstensz
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:5
Carstensz 50%Team Cat 50%
The model gave 50% on Carstensz — the game was taken by Carstensz in 31:24.
Game 2prediction correct22:39
Carstensz 50%Team Cat 50%
The model gave 50% on Carstensz — the game was taken by Carstensz in 50:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteCarstensz · 50%
Series resultCarstensz 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2