DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 1:3series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 1:3
BETBOOM TEAMwin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HULIGANI
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 43 games
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 42 games
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 41 game
Jakirooften banned
RESPECT · 37 games
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 37 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 34 games
Slardaroften banned
Bb3px · 32 games
Tiny
erase · 30 games
BETBOOM TEAM
Jakirosignature
Kataomi · 46 games
Hoodwinksignature
Save- · 41 game
Tusk
Kataomi · 36 games
Muerta
Save- · 28 games
Beastmastersignature
gpK~ · 26 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Save- · 26 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 25 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Kiritych · 23 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
649 picks · 691 bans
Tiny
527 picks · 452 bans
Tusk
501 picks · 422 bans
Phoenix
439 picks · 438 bans
Warlock
436 picks · 289 bans
Shadow Demon
406 picks · 1118 bans
Puck
402 picks · 870 bans
Hoodwink
399 picks · 183 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 49%
Hero pool strength52% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total74% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:16
HULIGANI 40%BETBOOM TEAM 60%
The model gave 60% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 35:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmotherssnovv1
Void SpiritgpK~
PuckMirage
UrsaKiritych
TidehunterCorrupted
Centaur WarrunnerMieRo
Hoodwinksayuw
Shadow ShamanSave-
Shadow DemonRESPECT
PhoenixKataomi
Game 2prediction correct0:0
HULIGANI 42%BETBOOM TEAM 58%
The model gave 58% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 44:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druidssnovv1
MuertaKiritych
PuckMirage
DawnbreakerMieRo
UnderlordCorrupted
Void SpiritgpK~
Shadow Demonsayuw
LionSave-
PhoenixRESPECT
TuskKataomi
Game 3prediction correct16:34
HULIGANI 37%BETBOOM TEAM 63%
The model gave 63% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 38:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritMirage
LifestealerKiritych
Muertassnovv1
Queen of PaingpK~
UnderlordCorrupted
Centaur WarrunnerMieRo
EnchantressRESPECT
LionSave-
Rubicksayuw
SilencerKataomi
Game 4prediction correct5:33
HULIGANI 39%BETBOOM TEAM 61%
The model gave 61% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 35:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muertassnovv1
Monkey KingKiritych
ViperMirage
WindrangergpK~
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
SlardarMieRo
Hoodwinksayuw
PhoenixKataomi
VenomancerRESPECT
Shadow DemonSave-
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 74%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 1:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4