Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionMmonopolywin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TXthe xddersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
monopoly
No games played over 6 months.
the xdders
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
765 picks · 498 bans
Tiny
544 picks · 395 bans
Tusk
540 picks · 445 bans
Treant Protector
532 picks · 581 bans
Nature's Prophet
414 picks · 629 bans
Snapfire
394 picks · 275 bans
Death Prophet
381 picks · 678 bans
Ember Spirit
359 picks · 771 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% monopoly
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% monopoly
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
monopoly 57%the xdders 43%
The model gave 57% on monopoly — the game was taken by monopoly.
Game 2prediction correct
monopoly 57%the xdders 43%
The model gave 57% on monopoly — the game was taken by monopoly.
Model check result
Model favoritemonopoly · 57%
Series resultmonopoly 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2