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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:2
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PSG Questwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 24 games
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 19 games
63%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 16 games
69%
Lina
Linasignature
dyrachyo · 15 games
87%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 15 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 15 games
80%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 14 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
tOfu · 13 games
46%

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 23 games
78%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 16 games
69%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Wuiter · 13 games
77%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Kaori · 13 games
77%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
No!ob · 12 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
No!ob · 12 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 12 games
67%
Slark
Slarksignature
TA2000 · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
759 picks · 493 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
540 picks · 390 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
536 picks · 444 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
531 picks · 581 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
411 picks · 621 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
390 picks · 273 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
379 picks · 669 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
356 picks · 768 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 74%
Hero pool strength51% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:31
Gaimin Gladiators 71%PSG Quest 29%
The model gave 71% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 37:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracQuinn
51% · 259 games46% · 84 games
Drow RangerTA2000
Drow Ranger
Abaddon
Abaddondyrachyo
45% · 53 games55% · 208 games
PuckNo!ob
Puck
Marci
MarciAce
49% · 374 games46% · 292 games
SnapfireNefrit
Snapfire
Hoodwink
HoodwinktOfu
45% · 288 games58% · 224 games
UndyingKaori
Undying
Io
IoSeleri
51% · 127 games52% · 293 games
TuskOmaR
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct30:17
Gaimin Gladiators 74%PSG Quest 26%
The model gave 74% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 29:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerdyrachyo
54% · 85 games48% · 165 games
PudgeTA2000
Pudge
Broodmother
BroodmotherAce
55% · 195 games44% · 154 games
Void SpiritNo!ob
Void Spirit
Puck
PuckQuinn
57% · 309 games42% · 366 games
SnapfireNefrit
Snapfire
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
46% · 190 games53% · 178 games
Skywrath MageOmaR
Skywrath Mage
Rubick
RubicktOfu
50% · 328 games52% · 244 games
Crystal MaidenKaori
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction missed16:46
Gaimin Gladiators 72%PSG Quest 28%
The model gave 72% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 40:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetAce
53% · 328 games57% · 155 games
Naga SirenTA2000
Naga Siren
Batrider
BatriderQuinn
51% · 256 games52% · 774 games
TinyNo!ob
Tiny
Ursa
Ursadyrachyo
47% · 213 games50% · 153 games
TidehunterNefrit
Tidehunter
Tusk
TusktOfu
50% · 581 game48% · 217 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Snapfire
SnapfireSeleri
45% · 492 games48% · 571 game
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 87%
Series resultPSG Quest 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3