Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Blinkwin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Faithloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Blink
Silencer
smN · 5 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
smN · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
smN · 1 game
Elder Titan
smN · 1 game
Mirana
smN · 1 game
Team Faith
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
759 picks · 493 bans
Tiny
540 picks · 389 bans
Tusk
536 picks · 444 bans
Treant Protector
531 picks · 581 bans
Nature's Prophet
411 picks · 621 bans
Snapfire
390 picks · 273 bans
Death Prophet
379 picks · 667 bans
Ember Spirit
356 picks · 768 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team Blink
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Team Blink
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:34
Team Blink 60%Team Faith 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Blink — the game was taken by Team Blink in 37:10.
Game 2prediction correct18:40
Team Blink 60%Team Faith 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Blink — the game was taken by Team Blink in 32:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Blink · 60%
Series resultTeam Blink 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2