Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMwin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HAVU Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KZ TEAM
Earthshakersignature
dEsire · 24 games
Primal Beastsignature
dEsire · 18 games
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 18 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 17 games
Rubick
dEsire · 17 games
Vipersignature
SkyLark · 16 games
Batridersignature
W1sh- · 13 games
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 13 games
HAVU Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
759 picks · 487 bans
Tiny
540 picks · 388 bans
Tusk
536 picks · 443 bans
Treant Protector
531 picks · 581 bans
Nature's Prophet
411 picks · 617 bans
Snapfire
390 picks · 273 bans
Death Prophet
379 picks · 664 bans
Ember Spirit
356 picks · 765 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 38%
Hero pool strength58% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% HAVU Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:17
KZ TEAM 49%HAVU Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on HAVU Gaming — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 32:56.
Game 2prediction missed31:23
KZ TEAM 49%HAVU Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on HAVU Gaming — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 37:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteHAVU Gaming · 51%
Series resultKZ TEAM 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2