Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Misfitsloss 0:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
qualifiers enjoyerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Misfits
No games played over 6 months.
qualifiers enjoyers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
759 picks · 487 bans
Tiny
540 picks · 390 bans
Tusk
536 picks · 445 bans
Treant Protector
531 picks · 583 bans
Nature's Prophet
411 picks · 618 bans
Snapfire
390 picks · 273 bans
Death Prophet
379 picks · 659 bans
Ember Spirit
356 picks · 762 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Misfits
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Misfits
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed49:16
Misfits 70%qualifiers enjoyers 30%
The model gave 70% on Misfits — the game was taken by qualifiers enjoyers in 41:28.
Game 2prediction missed13:43
Misfits 70%qualifiers enjoyers 30%
The model gave 70% on Misfits — the game was taken by qualifiers enjoyers in 36:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteMisfits · 70%
Series resultqualifiers enjoyers 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2