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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
EZ KATKAwin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Mega Creeps Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EZ KATKA

Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Rvze · 6 games
83%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
60%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lukas · 5 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rvze · 5 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Lefitan · 5 games
40%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Rvze · 3 games
33%
Marci
Marci
Lefitan · 3 games
33%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Lefitan · 3 games
100%

Mega Creeps Gaming

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
toshiyb · 1 game
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
toshiyb · 1 game
0%
Snapfire
Snapfire
toshiyb · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
759 picks · 487 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
540 picks · 390 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
536 picks · 445 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
531 picks · 583 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
411 picks · 618 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
390 picks · 273 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
379 picks · 659 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
356 picks · 762 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% EZ KATKA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% EZ KATKA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:29
EZ KATKA 59%Mega Creeps Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on EZ KATKA — the game was taken by EZ KATKA in 31:23.
Game 2prediction correct11:34
EZ KATKA 59%Mega Creeps Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on EZ KATKA — the game was taken by EZ KATKA in 24:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteEZ KATKA · 59%
Series resultEZ KATKA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2