Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
KEFTEMEwin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CChibaRibaloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KEFTEME
No games played over 6 months.
ChibaRiba
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
759 picks · 486 bans
Tiny
540 picks · 389 bans
Tusk
536 picks · 445 bans
Treant Protector
531 picks · 583 bans
Nature's Prophet
411 picks · 618 bans
Snapfire
390 picks · 273 bans
Death Prophet
379 picks · 658 bans
Ember Spirit
356 picks · 760 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% KEFTEME
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% KEFTEME
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:16
KEFTEME 55%ChibaRiba 45%
The model gave 55% on KEFTEME — the game was taken by KEFTEME in 33:26.
Game 2prediction correct18:31
KEFTEME 55%ChibaRiba 45%
The model gave 55% on KEFTEME — the game was taken by KEFTEME in 27:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteKEFTEME · 55%
Series resultKEFTEME 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2