Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Ukrainewin 1:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Fiery Bubbleloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Ukraine
Broodmotheroften banned
Batyuk · 1 game
Dark Willow
QBFY · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Iceberg · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
lightless · 1 game
Tusk
EcNart · 1 game
Fiery Bubble
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
759 picks · 486 bans
Tiny
540 picks · 390 bans
Tusk
536 picks · 445 bans
Treant Protector
531 picks · 585 bans
Nature's Prophet
411 picks · 618 bans
Snapfire
390 picks · 273 bans
Death Prophet
379 picks · 657 bans
Ember Spirit
356 picks · 763 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Team Ukraine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Fiery Bubble
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:46
Team Ukraine 46%Fiery Bubble 54%
The model gave 54% on Fiery Bubble — the game was taken by Team Ukraine in 35:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteFiery Bubble · 54%
Series resultTeam Ukraine 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1