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DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Ivoryloss 0:3
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:3
REKONIXwin 3:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ivory

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Ken · 9 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Rupido · 7 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 7 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Teehee · 7 games
14%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Karma丶 · 5 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Dric~ · 5 games
80%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Teehee · 5 games
20%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Dric~ · 4 games
25%

REKONIX

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 19 games
74%
Tiny
Tiny
inYourdreaM · 17 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fbz · 13 games
15%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 12 games
83%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Varizh · 12 games
50%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
TraVins · 11 games
45%
Muerta
Muertasignature
dalul · 9 games
67%
Axe
Axesignature
Fbz · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
648 picks · 690 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
524 picks · 453 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
500 picks · 421 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
435 picks · 289 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
433 picks · 431 bans
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
405 picks · 1113 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
396 picks · 865 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
393 picks · 178 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 39%
Hero pool strength54% REKONIX
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% REKONIX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:39
Ivory 39%REKONIX 61%
The model gave 61% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 29:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaKarma丶
46% · 102 games47% · 217 games
Templar AssassinTraVins
Templar Assassin
Tidehunter
TidehunterRupido
48% · 199 games48% · 278 games
SlardarinYourdreaM
Slardar
Puck
PuckKen
47% · 382 games53% · 63 games
Night StalkerFbz
Night Stalker
Ringmaster
RingmasterDric~
52% · 214 games52% · 124 games
Rubickdalul
Rubick
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorTeehee
59% · 71 game52% · 286 games
DisruptorVarizh
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct19:30
Ivory 40%REKONIX 60%
The model gave 60% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 50:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonKarma丶
54% · 172 games46% · 189 games
Templar AssassinTraVins
Templar Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritKen
50% · 292 games56% · 172 games
BristlebackFbz
Bristleback
Tidehunter
TidehunterRupido
54% · 176 games53% · 162 games
Sand KinginYourdreaM
Sand King
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeTeehee
47% · 30 games47% · 39 games
Miranadalul
Mirana
Lion
LionDric~
42% · 75 games47% · 183 games
PhoenixVarizh
Phoenix
Game 3prediction correct13:25
Ivory 41%REKONIX 59%
The model gave 59% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 28:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinKarma丶
54% · 333 games55% · 281 game
PuckinYourdreaM
Puck
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritKen
46% · 408 games51% · 299 games
TinyTraVins
Tiny
Brewmaster
BrewmasterRupido
47% · 189 games54% · 153 games
TidehunterFbz
Tidehunter
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiTeehee
51% · 71 game49% · 236 games
Hoodwinkdalul
Hoodwink
Lion
LionDric~
46% · 141 game46% · 173 games
PhoenixVarizh
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteREKONIX · 70%
Series resultREKONIX 0:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3