Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
BAZA Esportsloss 0:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Mega Creeps Gamingwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BAZA Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Mega Creeps Gaming
Batrideroften banned
toshiyb · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
toshiyb · 1 game
Snapfire
toshiyb · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
759 picks · 485 bans
Tiny
540 picks · 390 bans
Tusk
536 picks · 445 bans
Treant Protector
531 picks · 582 bans
Nature's Prophet
411 picks · 616 bans
Snapfire
390 picks · 272 bans
Death Prophet
379 picks · 653 bans
Ember Spirit
356 picks · 762 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Mega Creeps Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Mega Creeps Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:38
BAZA Esports 48%Mega Creeps Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Mega Creeps Gaming — the game was taken by Mega Creeps Gaming in 47:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteMega Creeps Gaming · 52%
Series resultMega Creeps Gaming 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1