Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
The Bad Guysloss 0:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:1
CChibaRibawin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Bad Guys
No games played over 6 months.
ChibaRiba
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
759 picks · 484 bans
Tiny
540 picks · 390 bans
Tusk
536 picks · 445 bans
Treant Protector
531 picks · 582 bans
Nature's Prophet
411 picks · 616 bans
Snapfire
390 picks · 272 bans
Death Prophet
379 picks · 652 bans
Ember Spirit
356 picks · 762 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% The Bad Guys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% The Bad Guys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:40
The Bad Guys 51%ChibaRiba 49%
The model gave 51% on The Bad Guys — the game was taken by ChibaRiba in 33:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Bad Guys · 51%
Series resultChibaRiba 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1