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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Entitywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 7 games
43%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 7 games
29%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
SumaiL · 6 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
GH · 5 games
20%
Sven
Sven
ATF · 5 games
40%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
SumaiL · 4 games
50%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 4 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenix
GH · 4 games
50%

Entity

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
758 picks · 485 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
539 picks · 389 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
536 picks · 447 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
531 picks · 582 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
411 picks · 612 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
389 picks · 272 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
378 picks · 650 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
354 picks · 763 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 49%
Hero pool strength50% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total73% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:30
Nigma Galaxy 27%Entity 73%
The model gave 73% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 50:25.
Game 2prediction missed50:35
Nigma Galaxy 27%Entity 73%
The model gave 73% on Entity — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 58:36.
Game 3prediction correct20:46
Nigma Galaxy 27%Entity 73%
The model gave 73% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 43:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 73%
Series resultEntity 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3