Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
defloss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Holy Grailwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
def
No games played over 6 months.
Holy Grail
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
758 picks · 483 bans
Tiny
537 picks · 389 bans
Tusk
536 picks · 447 bans
Treant Protector
531 picks · 582 bans
Nature's Prophet
410 picks · 610 bans
Snapfire
389 picks · 272 bans
Death Prophet
378 picks · 647 bans
Ember Spirit
353 picks · 762 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% def
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Holy Grail
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct1:11
def 46%Holy Grail 54%
The model gave 54% on Holy Grail — the game was taken by Holy Grail in 15:40.
Game 2prediction correct2:16
def 46%Holy Grail 54%
The model gave 54% on Holy Grail — the game was taken by Holy Grail in 17:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteHoly Grail · 54%
Series resultHoly Grail 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2