Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Piggy Killerwin 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Falling Faintloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Piggy Killer
No games played over 6 months.
Falling Faint
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
758 picks · 483 bans
Tiny
537 picks · 388 bans
Tusk
536 picks · 446 bans
Treant Protector
531 picks · 582 bans
Nature's Prophet
410 picks · 608 bans
Snapfire
389 picks · 272 bans
Death Prophet
378 picks · 646 bans
Ember Spirit
353 picks · 761 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Piggy Killer
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Piggy Killer
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:31
Piggy Killer 69%Falling Faint 31%
The model gave 69% on Piggy Killer — the game was taken by Piggy Killer in 47:02.
Game 2prediction correct33:24
Piggy Killer 69%Falling Faint 31%
The model gave 69% on Piggy Killer — the game was taken by Piggy Killer in 51:08.
Model check result
Model favoritePiggy Killer · 69%
Series resultPiggy Killer 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2