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DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesisloss 1:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
REKONIXwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Nemesis

Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 15 games
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jhocam · 14 games
57%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Jabz · 14 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 14 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mac · 14 games
64%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Q · 13 games
54%
Muerta
Muerta
Jhocam · 12 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Jaunuel · 11 games
36%

REKONIX

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 18 games
72%
Tiny
Tiny
inYourdreaM · 17 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fbz · 12 games
17%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Varizh · 12 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 11 games
82%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
TraVins · 11 games
45%
Muerta
Muertasignature
dalul · 9 games
67%
Kez
Kezsignature
TraVins · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
647 picks · 688 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
524 picks · 453 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
498 picks · 421 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
434 picks · 288 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
432 picks · 427 bans
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
405 picks · 1110 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
396 picks · 865 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
391 picks · 176 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% REKONIX
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total54% REKONIX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:47
Team Nemesis 48%REKONIX 52%
The model gave 52% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 53:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muerta23savage
45% · 171 game56% · 205 games
Monkey KingTraVins
Monkey King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMac
50% · 344 games52% · 212 games
Sand KinginYourdreaM
Sand King
Pangolier
PangolierJabz
45% · 299 games53% · 207 games
AxeFbz
Axe
Rubick
RubickQ
52% · 90 games55% · 73 games
Grimstrokedalul
Grimstroke
Clockwerk
ClockwerkJaunuel
46% · 118 games47% · 325 games
WarlockVarizh
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed26:12
Team Nemesis 49%REKONIX 51%
The model gave 51% on REKONIX — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 39:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter23savage
49% · 363 games54% · 375 games
BeastmasterTraVins
Beastmaster
Pangolier
PangolierMac
49% · 430 games42% · 274 games
Queen of PaininYourdreaM
Queen of Pain
Slardar
SlardarJabz
55% · 360 games50% · 204 games
AxeFbz
Axe
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenJaunuel
48% · 55 games46% · 126 games
EnchantressVarizh
Enchantress
Windranger
WindrangerQ
56% · 245 games49% · 474 games
Tuskdalul
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct12:23
Team Nemesis 48%REKONIX 52%
The model gave 52% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 37:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorblade23savage
50% · 311 games55% · 145 games
Naga SirenTraVins
Naga Siren
Pangolier
PangolierMac
42% · 409 games49% · 218 games
BristlebackFbz
Bristleback
Primal Beast
Primal BeastJabz
51% · 179 games52% · 315 games
Ember SpiritinYourdreaM
Ember Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerQ
42% · 205 games56% · 271 game
Hoodwinkdalul
Hoodwink
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorJaunuel
54% · 92 games50% · 247 games
DisruptorVarizh
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteREKONIX · 54%
Series resultREKONIX 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3