Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Supernovawin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
瓦斯弹loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Supernova
Hoodwink
sheep · 4 games
Earthshaker
sheep · 3 games
Mirana
sheep · 2 games
Rubick
sheep · 2 games
Dark Willow
sheep · 1 game
Earth Spirit
sheep · 1 game
Snapfire
sheep · 1 game
Tusk
sheep · 1 game
瓦斯弹
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
756 picks · 483 bans
Tiny
537 picks · 387 bans
Tusk
535 picks · 445 bans
Treant Protector
531 picks · 582 bans
Nature's Prophet
410 picks · 605 bans
Snapfire
389 picks · 272 bans
Death Prophet
378 picks · 642 bans
Ember Spirit
353 picks · 756 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% 瓦斯弹
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Supernova
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:29
Supernova 53%瓦斯弹 47%
The model gave 53% on Supernova — the game was taken by Supernova in 32:56.
Game 2prediction correct19:39
Supernova 53%瓦斯弹 47%
The model gave 53% on Supernova — the game was taken by Supernova in 41:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteSupernova · 53%
Series resultSupernova 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2