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DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
South America Rejectsloss 1:2
series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Heroicwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

South America Rejects

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 2 games
100%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 1 game
100%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Frank · 1 game
100%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Elmisho · 1 game
0%
Lycan
Lycan
Frank · 1 game
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Wits · 1 game
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Wits · 1 game
100%

Heroic

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Thiolicor · 37 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 29 games
31%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 23 games
74%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 21 game
43%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 21 game
52%
Viper
Viperoften banned
TaiLung · 20 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 19 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
646 picks · 688 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
524 picks · 453 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
496 picks · 421 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
434 picks · 288 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
430 picks · 427 bans
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
405 picks · 1110 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
396 picks · 865 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
388 picks · 176 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 59%
Hero pool strength52% South America Rejects
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:32
South America Rejects 28%Heroic 72%
The model gave 72% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 34:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezWits
41% · 101 game47% · 101 game
LunaYuma
Luna
Slardar
SlardarDarkMago
53% · 298 games53% · 112 games
Keeper of the LightTaiLung
Keeper of the Light
Dark Seer
Dark SeerFrank
46% · 103 games48% · 279 games
TidehunterWisper
Tidehunter
Undying
UndyingScofield
45% · 101 game58% · 274 games
BatriderKJ
Batrider
Jakiro
JakiroElmisho
48% · 488 games57% · 325 games
HoodwinkThiolicor
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed41:13
South America Rejects 29%Heroic 71%
The model gave 71% on Heroic — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 42:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperDarkMago
39% · 43 games52% · 226 games
Void SpiritTaiLung
Void Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWits
48% · 321 game51% · 203 games
Monkey KingYuma
Monkey King
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerFrank
45% · 179 games56% · 361 game
Ember SpiritWisper
Ember Spirit
Tusk
TuskScofield
49% · 499 games55% · 341 game
HoodwinkThiolicor
Hoodwink
Phoenix
PhoenixElmisho
49% · 247 games52% · 158 games
EnchantressKJ
Enchantress
Game 3prediction correct22:47
South America Rejects 30%Heroic 70%
The model gave 70% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 53:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomWits
45% · 137 games46% · 262 games
Queen of PainTaiLung
Queen of Pain
Sniper
SniperDarkMago
50% · 35 games51% · 45 games
AlchemistYuma
Alchemist
Tidehunter
TidehunterFrank
49% · 205 games54% · 292 games
BatriderWisper
Batrider
Phoenix
PhoenixElmisho
48% · 215 games54% · 135 games
RubickKJ
Rubick
Tusk
TuskScofield
48% · 429 games56% · 287 games
HoodwinkThiolicor
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 84%
Series resultHeroic 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3