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DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BTC Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Estar Backsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BTC Gaming

Disruptor
Disruptor
Prada · 6 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Lumière · 5 games
40%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Mjz · 4 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mjz · 4 games
25%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Mnz · 3 games
100%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Prada · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Prada · 3 games
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Lumière · 3 games
33%

Estar Backs

Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Accel · 10 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Accel · 6 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Accel · 4 games
75%
Omniknight
Omniknight
bsK7- · 4 games
25%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
bsK7- · 3 games
33%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bsK7- · 3 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Accel · 2 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
bsK7- · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
645 picks · 692 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
523 picks · 456 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
498 picks · 422 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
435 picks · 288 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
429 picks · 426 bans
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
405 picks · 1111 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
396 picks · 866 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
387 picks · 175 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 42%
Hero pool strength52% BTC Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:18
BTC Gaming 39%Estar Backs 61%
The model gave 61% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by BTC Gaming in 50:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaMnz
45% · 59 games48% · 103 games
Muertapayk
Muerta
Riki
RikiAlone
73% · 7 games52% · 109 games
ClockwerkYadomi
Clockwerk
Batrider
BatriderPrada
47% · 77 games
Snapfire
SnapfireMjz
53% · 69 games
Game 2prediction correct3:32
BTC Gaming 42%Estar Backs 58%
The model gave 58% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 30:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand KingAlone
49% · 94 games49% · 146 games
Tinypayk
Tiny
Alchemist
AlchemistMnz
50% · 14 games51% · 104 games
PhoenixYadomi
Phoenix
Snapfire
SnapfireMjz
49% · 98 games
Enchantress
EnchantressPrada
52% · 44 games
Game 3prediction missed17:2
BTC Gaming 37%Estar Backs 63%
The model gave 63% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by BTC Gaming in 27:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerMnz
little data52% · 69 games
Slarkpayk
Slark
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightAlone
48% · 27 games46% · 203 games
PhoenixYadomi
Phoenix
Ringmaster
RingmasterMjz
52% · 88 games
Jakiro
JakiroPrada
52% · 157 games
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 68%
Series resultBTC Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3