DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionBBarrancoBarwin 2:0
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hokoriloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BarrancoBar
Doomoften banned
bsK7- · 2 games
Grimstroke
Accel · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
bsK7- · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
bsK7- · 1 game
Bane
Accel · 1 game
Chenoften banned
Accel · 1 game
Silencer
Accel · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
bsK7- · 1 game
Hokori
Clockwerk
Gardick · 3 games
Hoodwink
Genek · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Costabile · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
Gardick · 2 games
Death Prophet
Vitaly · 2 games
Phoenix
Genek · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Lumière · 2 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Genek · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
645 picks · 692 bans
Tiny
523 picks · 456 bans
Tusk
498 picks · 422 bans
Warlock
435 picks · 288 bans
Phoenix
429 picks · 426 bans
Shadow Demon
405 picks · 1111 bans
Puck
396 picks · 866 bans
Hoodwink
387 picks · 175 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% BarrancoBar
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:6
BarrancoBar 44%Hokori 56%
The model gave 56% on Hokori — the game was taken by BarrancoBar in 39:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritbsK7-
LunaCostabile
GrimstrokeAccel
Queen of PainLumière
45% · 133 games
PangolierVitaly
57% · 25 games
RubickGenek
62% · 32 games
Treant ProtectorGardick
Game 2prediction missed34:23
BarrancoBar 43%Hokori 57%
The model gave 57% on Hokori — the game was taken by BarrancoBar in 45:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
NecrophosbsK7-
WindrangerCostabile
DisruptorAccel
Nature's ProphetLumière
54% · 55 games
TidehunterVitaly
47% · 41 game
ClockwerkGardick
54% · 135 games
HoodwinkGenek
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 62%
Series resultBarrancoBar 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2