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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:1
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Infinity Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 13 games
54%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 13 games
62%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 12 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 12 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Oscar · 11 games
64%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 10 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chris Luck · 10 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Yuma · 9 games
44%

Infinity Esports

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 9 games
22%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Genek · 9 games
44%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Genek · 8 games
63%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Leostyle · 8 games
25%
Tusk
Tusk
Genek · 8 games
38%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Prada · 7 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Oscar · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Prada · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
752 picks · 480 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
534 picks · 443 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
531 picks · 387 bans
51%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
529 picks · 580 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
410 picks · 601 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
387 picks · 266 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
376 picks · 634 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
352 picks · 752 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 29%
Hero pool strength59% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total89% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:28
Evil Geniuses 74%Infinity Esports 26%
The model gave 74% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 43:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaPakazs
48% · 90 games40% · 110 games
Drow RangerAdrx
Drow Ranger
Death Prophet
Death ProphetChris Luck
47% · 483 games53% · 226 games
LeshracLeostyle
Leshrac
Broodmother
BroodmotherWisper
54% · 148 games54% · 210 games
BatriderFrank
Batrider
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMatthew
48% · 329 games54% · 302 games
Treant ProtectorPrada
Treant Protector
Undying
UndyingPanda
52% · 346 games48% · 548 games
TinyKiri
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct25:6
Evil Geniuses 77%Infinity Esports 23%
The model gave 77% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 25:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingPakazs
53% · 226 games45% · 178 games
TerrorbladeAdrx
Terrorblade
Leshrac
LeshracChris Luck
60% · 268 games50% · 134 games
LycanFrank
Lycan
Timbersaw
TimbersawWisper
54% · 149 games42% · 280 games
Ember SpiritLeostyle
Ember Spirit
Silencer
SilencerMatthew
46% · 245 games48% · 391 game
RubickKiri
Rubick
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPanda
51% · 324 games52% · 229 games
UndyingPrada
Undying
Game 3prediction correct39:19
Evil Geniuses 77%Infinity Esports 23%
The model gave 77% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 40:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinPakazs
51% · 108 games44% · 61 game
AbaddonAdrx
Abaddon
Batrider
BatriderChris Luck
53% · 228 games47% · 165 games
Queen of PainLeostyle
Queen of Pain
Undying
UndyingWisper
64% · 175 games44% · 112 games
TidehunterFrank
Tidehunter
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPanda
56% · 189 games47% · 79 games
Shadow DemonPrada
Shadow Demon
Disruptor
DisruptorMatthew
44% · 83 games47% · 366 games
TuskKiri
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 89%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3