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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:1
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Qhaliloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

beastcoast

No games played over 6 months.

Qhali

Undying
Undyingoften banned
Luis · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
MonHty · 6 games
67%
Lina
Linasignature
Cucahook · 6 games
67%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Hermit · 6 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Luis · 6 games
83%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 4 games
50%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Hermit · 4 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Robo-Z · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
752 picks · 479 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
532 picks · 447 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
530 picks · 386 bans
51%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
528 picks · 576 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
410 picks · 598 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
385 picks · 264 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
374 picks · 632 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
351 picks · 746 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Qhali
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:20
beastcoast 87%Qhali 13%
The model gave 87% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Qhali in 35:33.
Game 2prediction missed35:9
beastcoast 87%Qhali 13%
The model gave 87% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Qhali in 26:31.
Game 3prediction missed17:20
beastcoast 87%Qhali 13%
The model gave 87% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Qhali in 32:17.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 87%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3