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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Matreshka Teamwin 2:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SIBE Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Matreshka Team

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
JANTER · 4 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
egxrdemxn · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
Lagoona · 3 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
50%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Retsu · 2 games
0%
Silencer
Silencer
JANTER · 2 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Lagoona · 2 games
50%

SIBE Team

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Arti_Shock · 1 game
100%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Arti_Shock · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
746 picks · 474 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
531 picks · 457 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
528 picks · 578 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
527 picks · 388 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
408 picks · 592 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
384 picks · 261 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
372 picks · 621 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
351 picks · 747 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 67%
Hero pool strength58% SIBE Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:30
Matreshka Team 52%SIBE Team 48%
The model gave 52% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 39:31.
Game 2prediction correct7:46
Matreshka Team 52%SIBE Team 48%
The model gave 52% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 33:32.
Game 3prediction correct41:11
Matreshka Team 52%SIBE Team 48%
The model gave 52% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 29:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 52%
Series resultMatreshka Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3