Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
IHC Esportsloss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Neon Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
IHC Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Neon Esports
Chenoften banned
Se · 7 games
Earthshaker
PlayHard · 7 games
Snapfire
Hated · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 6 games
Tusk
PlayHard · 6 games
Undyingoften banned
Se · 6 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 5 games
Enchantress
Se · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
746 picks · 474 bans
Tusk
531 picks · 455 bans
Treant Protector
528 picks · 578 bans
Tiny
527 picks · 388 bans
Nature's Prophet
408 picks · 592 bans
Snapfire
384 picks · 261 bans
Death Prophet
372 picks · 620 bans
Ember Spirit
351 picks · 747 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 38%
Hero pool strength54% IHC Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:48
IHC Esports 39%Neon Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 1:04:26.
Game 2prediction correct41:50
IHC Esports 39%Neon Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 57:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 61%
Series resultNeon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2