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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Aster.Arieswin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Limitloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aster.Aries

Tusk
Tusk
White丶Album · 7 games
14%
Phoenix
Phoenix
RedPanda · 6 games
33%
Tiny
Tiny
TK · 6 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
White丶Album · 5 games
40%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
White丶Album · 4 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
TK · 4 games
25%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Ulu · 4 games
50%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
生死 · 3 games
67%

Limit

Tusk
Tusksignature
Yds · 17 games
76%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Victoria · 9 games
89%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Srf · 8 games
88%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yds · 8 games
88%
Lich
Lichsignature
Victoria · 7 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Srf · 7 games
100%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Victoria · 6 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Srf · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
745 picks · 475 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
530 picks · 458 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
527 picks · 577 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
526 picks · 385 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
411 picks · 589 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
385 picks · 258 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
372 picks · 619 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
351 picks · 747 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 67%
Hero pool strength67% Limit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Limit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:6
Aster.Aries 50%Limit 50%
The model gave 50% on Limit — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 21:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracWhite丶Album
60% · 183 games47% · 168 games
Doom冷鸟
Doom
Marci
MarciUlu
54% · 319 games51% · 178 games
MorphlingKry
Morphling
Tidehunter
Tidehunter生死
48% · 109 games48% · 427 games
TuskChosenone
Tusk
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorRedPanda
53% · 322 games43% · 231 game
Crystal Maiden出省
Crystal Maiden
Primal Beast
Primal BeastTK
54% · 235 games42% · 164 games
Silencercxk
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed30:7
Aster.Aries 50%Limit 50%
The model gave 50% on Limit — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 21:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmother生死
52% · 298 games53% · 156 games
Naga SirenKry
Naga Siren
Leshrac
LeshracUlu
58% · 305 games48% · 300 games
Mars冷鸟
Mars
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWhite丶Album
42% · 497 games48% · 644 games
TinyChosenone
Tiny
Phoenix
PhoenixRedPanda
52% · 201 game46% · 422 games
Rubickcxk
Rubick
Clockwerk
ClockwerkTK
54% · 478 games48% · 257 games
Crystal Maiden出省
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteLimit · 50%
Series resultAster.Aries 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2