Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
RZ Esportsloss 0:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hopewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
RZ Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Hope
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
745 picks · 472 bans
Tusk
530 picks · 458 bans
Tiny
528 picks · 384 bans
Treant Protector
527 picks · 574 bans
Nature's Prophet
412 picks · 586 bans
Snapfire
385 picks · 258 bans
Death Prophet
372 picks · 619 bans
Ember Spirit
351 picks · 746 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% RZ Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% RZ Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:32
RZ Esports 64%Hope 36%
The model gave 64% on RZ Esports — the game was taken by Hope in 21:26.
Game 2prediction missed37:45
RZ Esports 64%Hope 36%
The model gave 64% on RZ Esports — the game was taken by Hope in 50:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteRZ Esports · 64%
Series resultHope 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2