Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team M11win 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
UUltimateDotaloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team M11
No games played over 6 months.
UltimateDota
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
745 picks · 472 bans
Tusk
530 picks · 458 bans
Tiny
528 picks · 384 bans
Treant Protector
527 picks · 574 bans
Nature's Prophet
412 picks · 586 bans
Snapfire
385 picks · 258 bans
Death Prophet
372 picks · 619 bans
Ember Spirit
351 picks · 746 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team M11
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Team M11
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:44
Team M11 50%UltimateDota 50%
The model gave 50% on Team M11 — the game was taken by Team M11 in 34:47.
Game 2prediction correct
Team M11 50%UltimateDota 50%
The model gave 50% on Team M11 — the game was taken by Team M11.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam M11 · 50%
Series resultTeam M11 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2