Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Mega Creeps Gamingloss 1:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Misfitswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mega Creeps Gaming
Snapfire
toshiyb · 1 game
Misfits
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
738 picks · 470 bans
Tiny
526 picks · 381 bans
Treant Protector
526 picks · 573 bans
Tusk
526 picks · 455 bans
Nature's Prophet
409 picks · 582 bans
Snapfire
381 picks · 255 bans
Death Prophet
369 picks · 614 bans
Ember Spirit
348 picks · 740 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Mega Creeps Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Misfits
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Mega Creeps Gaming 38%Misfits 62%
The model gave 62% on Misfits — the game was taken by Misfits.
Game 2prediction missed35:20
Mega Creeps Gaming 38%Misfits 62%
The model gave 62% on Misfits — the game was taken by Mega Creeps Gaming in 31:25.
Game 3prediction correct20:35
Mega Creeps Gaming 38%Misfits 62%
The model gave 62% on Misfits — the game was taken by Misfits in 1:00:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteMisfits · 62%
Series resultMisfits 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3