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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Matreshka Teamwin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
willbefineloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Matreshka Team

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
JANTER · 4 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
egxrdemxn · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
Lagoona · 3 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
50%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Retsu · 2 games
0%
Silencer
Silencer
JANTER · 2 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Lagoona · 2 games
50%

willbefine

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
738 picks · 469 bans
51%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
526 picks · 573 bans
57%
Tusk
Tusk
526 picks · 454 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
524 picks · 381 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
408 picks · 581 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
381 picks · 254 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
368 picks · 613 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
347 picks · 739 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% willbefine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:30
Matreshka Team 57%willbefine 43%
The model gave 57% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 49:55.
Game 2prediction correct25:46
Matreshka Team 57%willbefine 43%
The model gave 57% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 46:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 57%
Series resultMatreshka Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2