Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Sexywin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Ukraineloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Sexy
Death Prophetoften banned
Nefrit · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
9Class · 2 games
Rikioften banned
9Class · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Moonlight · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 1 game
Dark Willow
9Class · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
7jesu · 1 game
Huskaroften banned
Moonlight · 1 game
Team Ukraine
Broodmotheroften banned
Batyuk · 1 game
Dark Willow
QBFY · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Iceberg · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
lightless · 1 game
Tusk
EcNart · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
738 picks · 467 bans
Treant Protector
526 picks · 572 bans
Tusk
526 picks · 452 bans
Tiny
524 picks · 379 bans
Nature's Prophet
408 picks · 579 bans
Snapfire
381 picks · 253 bans
Death Prophet
368 picks · 609 bans
Ember Spirit
347 picks · 737 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Team Ukraine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Team Sexy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:20
Team Sexy 67%Team Ukraine 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Team Sexy in 22:40.
Game 2prediction correct23:28
Team Sexy 67%Team Ukraine 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Team Sexy in 31:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Sexy · 67%
Series resultTeam Sexy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2